GLOBAL AGRICULTURE 2020: WHICH WAY FORWARD?

Friday, 20 April 2001

More issues that will shape the future of agricultural research have been highlighted at an international conference held at the John Innes Centre in Norwich.  The new topics will be added to those identified in the previous two days under a series of main headings and will be used to inform the research planning process designed to meet the new challenges of the next twenty to thirty years.

I  The need to harness the power of scientific research and development to ensure continuing food supplies as pressures on agriculture increase, such as rising population and climate change

• The main requirements in many developing countries are still for increasedyield and decreased crop losses from pests and diseases. This will have tobe achieved from increasingly stressed and scarce natural resources, with water and fertile land under great pressure, and against a background of new ecological imbalances arising from the instabilities caused by climate change.
• Without drastic improvements in food supply and food security, malnutrition is the most important health determinant, directly affecting the survival and physical and intellectual development of future generations in many areas.
• For small farm units in developing countries investment in research is the key to yield improvement, increased income, improved prices and reduced losses from pests and disease.  In many cases smaller farms are more able to benefit from innovation than larger enterprises.  For example, the use of transgenic, virus resistant potatoes in Mexico resulted in 141% yield increases on small farms and 45% on larger establishments, with income increases of 34% and 15% respectively, with no extra cost to the farmer as seed was supplied.
• Gene flow between varieties is much higher in locations where there is a large  number of related varieties, including wild varieties, exist side by side.  This could inhibit the introduction of GM varieties in species-rich areas, especially tropical countries. The expected changes in growing environment are considerable: more marginal lands will be pressed into service, and high levels of water stress, worsened by increased salinity, present challenges to the research community to develop drought-resistant and salt-tolerant (even salt-consuming) crops.
• Both production and distribution are important but plant scientists can only address the production issues.
• Climate change in this century will bring increased volatility in the resources required for agricultural production.

• Farmers in developing countries must be given an incentive to produce crops.  They need an income and the ability to compete in the world market.
• Farmers’ needs must drive the application of appropriate new technology. Appropriate technology transfer varies according to the direction of this transfer: north to south, within a country, large to small-scale farms, industry to agriculture.
• The speed of biotechnological advance is outstripping the ability of regulatory and risk assessment systems to keep up with them.  This has given rise to current frictions.  Ways of creating flexible regulatory systems to respond to change need to be found.
• If the projections about increases in meat consumption are correct – as a result of improved and increasingly urban lifestyles for most of the world’s population – then the demand for increased food production will be exacerbated, with more cereals required for feed stuffs
• The emphasis on increased food production has to be on local (i.e. near demand) production, especially but not only in those developing countries with the highest food stress.  It will be increasingly hard, in view of production volume and energy consumption to transport proteins for basic dietary needs across the globe, even if market forces will always make it possible to move luxury items large distances.
• In future measurement standards may change to reflect more accurately the critical limiting factors of growth.  For example measurements could be in tons per water consumption volume instead of tons per land area.
• It has to recognised in the sustainability debate that whilst some regions will  need to increase production, other will have to cut back with the resultant impact on markets.
• Health issues may prevent the application of innovative techniques.  GM should be used wherever possible to improve health.

• Trials and risk assessments must be carried out under local regional conditions.  Results from trials in different countries and continents and under different climatic conditions are not valid.
• The biotech industry taking the lead in many developments and as a result it is having to face challenges that were previously the preserve of the public sector.  The industry is being faced with the need to consider social responsibilities as well as those of productivity and profit.  This is especially true in agriculture because it  affects everybody compared with the pharmaceutical industry where a distinct target group of patients benefits.I
• Improvements in agriculture may come only as the result of the application of integrated packages that include financial credit support as well as a variety of ways of solving local problems such as the use of virus free tissue culture and micro propagation techniques.
• In order to ensure local suitability of crops there is a need to develop capabilities in genetic modification in developing countries.  This will raise issues of training, institution building, continuity and brain-drain.
• Technological innovation in agriculture and the management of agricultural systems should be addressed as an integrated package.
• Subsidies need to be directed to where there will be most benefit, to encourage sustainable agricultural practice.  The balance between different sectors, such as animals and crops, should be addressed in a region specific manner.
• Without additional resources farmers in any parts of the world can not shift away from unsustainable systems.
• Developed countries should not be complacent.  It is possible for advanced agricultural systems to collapse as a result of factors such as pressure of population, pollution, energy and other production costs, impact upon the environment.
• Intellectual property rights should be extended to the traditional methods used by farmers as well as high tech solutions.
• We need to understand the difference between Research and IP and technology transfer.  In order to obtain maximum benefit technology transfer may be required in opposite direction from usual ie from farmers to scientists.
• Better communications are needed, with more forums and more partnerships between different individuals, different organisations, and different sectors.

• One of the main constraints on the uptake of biotechnological solutions is lack of understanding and resulting non acceptance of products by the general public.
• The current disaffection of the public with GM crops has made governments aware of the importance of gathering information and monitoring public opinion with a view to incorporating social factors into future risk assessment criteria.
• The application of the part of biotechnology involved in producing GMOs is being inhibited by the ability of countries to sell GM products.  As a result of public opinion pressure, many countries, including the EU, are restricting the entry and use of GM products so that markets will be much smaller until GM becomes accepted.
• Over the next few weeks full proceedings of the conference will be produced and made widely available.

NOTES FOR EDITORS

1 Further information will be available on the conference website as it becomes available.

2 Issued 23 April 2001.