GLOBAL AGRICULTURE 2020: WHICH WAY FORWARD?

Other topics will be added as the conference progresses and the themes will be reviewed, refined and developed in the final day of the conference on Friday.  The themes identified so far are:

I   The need to harness the power of scientific research and development to ensure continuing food supplies as pressures on agriculture increase, such as rising population and climate change
II  Capturing the benefits from increased cooperation between institutions and communities, in ways that are appropriate for different user groups; “One size does not fit all.”
III  Involving all stakeholders, from farmers to consumers in the process of planning research and production and setting standards
IV  Improving public understanding of the scientific basis for agriculture
Topics highlighted in Thursday’s sessions were grouped together under these main headings.

I  The need to harness the power of scientific research and development to ensure continuing food supplies as the pressures on agriculture increase

• In addition to supplying food, agriculture will diversify into new crops for new uses, such as fibres in novel manufacturing situations or the production of fuels.  Research and development will be needed to meet the challenges of changing climate and land use and achieving greater production without ecological harm.
• With sufficient investment organic systems will be more productive and can be extended beyond traditional temperate boundaries.
• Marginal agriculture can benefit from biotechnology.   Crops with tolerance to environmental stresses, including drought, salinity and soil infertility can be developed.
• Plants can be used to produce cheap, high quality bulk pharmaceuticals from renewable seeds stocks.  Crop plants should not be used for pharmaceutical applications and some post production processing will be needed.

• Significant benefits can be obtained from increasing coordination in research and production and in resolving tensions between the private and public sectors, industrial and agricultural growth and public policy and technological development.
• Although at present organic systems and those using GM are regarded by many as alternative methods of production and completely independent, in future, they may come together as complementary elements of more productive regimes.  For example, the introduction of pest and disease resistance through GM will reduce the need for pesticide applications.
• Even with so-called conventional plant breeding, modern breeding programmes tend to produce products for modern agricultural systems.  They are not designed for organic or low input systems.  For maximum benefit to be achieved, the products of breeding programmes need to be developed with specific agricultural systems in mind.
• The place of small-scale farms in the mix of systems, including large-scale agribusiness, will be determined by decisions made now. Non-food crops that require intensive management input will be important on small-scale farms e.g. production of pharmaceuticals, large scale fuel, animal feed and value-added crops.
• Rice genome work provides a case study on how international collaboration between public and private sectors can intentionally be used for the good of both the agricultural sector and society.  One view is that the identification of potentially useful genes should remain in the public domain, while private institutes or businesses could pursue value-added commercial applications.
• Whilst nutritional enhancement is frequently done post harvest in developed countries, it could be more advantageous to improve the nutritional composition of the major staple crops.  International political co-operation is required for such efforts.
• More international co-operation in funding research and development projects is required.  Some projects should be funded on a global basis with co-operation between both public and private sectors; perhaps being devised by the public sector and delivered by the private sector.

• As communities develop and demands and tastes change, it will be  essential to plan developments at the local level, to make agriculture responsive to local needs and to develop all systems, organic as well as conventional, to meet both production and quality standards.
• Definitions need to be agreed internationally.  At present different definitions, of terms such as organic, are inhibiting international trade.  The definitions should include all the factors that influence them; for example sustainability should take account of social and economic factors.
• It has been thought that markets are price driven and consumers will always opt for the cheapest prices.  However, in developed countries consumers are willing to pay a premium for products with specific attributes, such as organic produce.  The global market for organic produce is likely to be small and conventional methods are expected to continue to play a significant role.
• Changing requirements in the nutritional value of foods, as well as increased demand for different flavours and aesthetic attributes, will have a profound effect on agricultural systems, including the need to produce more feed for animals.
• Agriculture acts as a buffer for industrialisation.  As technology is applied to agriculture people are released to work in industry.  Although the relative contribution of agriculture to a country’s economy declines as industrialisation advances,  its overall effect as a driver of future economic development remains high.
• Climate change produces natural disasters that have high impact at the local level and significant impact in the region. There are some strategies that can be used to reduce local impact.
• Food scares do not have a lasting effect.  Consumer demand soon builds back after a scare.
• Both public and private sectors agree the need for patents to protect intellectual property, but ways have to be found to enable poorer countries to have access to intellectual property without the costs involved in patenting.

• In order for developments in agriculture to become accepted, public understanding of the scientific basis of modern agriculture has to be improved.
• Terms such as Genetic Modification, Biotechnology and Genomics are not synonymous, despite what many people think, and need to be clarified.

-ends-

NOTES FOR EDITORS

1 For Further information contact:  Dr George Forster, 07973 452772

2 Issued  20 April 2001.